Rebuilding Ukraine? All of us have it wrong!!! (some more than others)
February 21, 2023 Leave a comment
Eleven months of constant work on the subject of Rebuilding Ukraine (both during and after the war); eleven months of preparation; of running two daily Telegram channels and reading countless articles on subject; watching videos and listening to podcasts by renowned, well-educated experts and politicians; daily conversations with friends and business associates who live in Ukraine and multiple in person and Zoom meetings with US and UA government officials, IFI representatives, mayors of over forty Ukrainian cities and dozens of corporate representatives.
Over these eleven months, a constant barrage of information and PR promotion from think tanks, government investment agencies, IFIs and reporters. Months of reading about emerging and repeating themes of using confiscated russian assets to rebuild Ukraine, countless high-level meetings with renowned global financial institutions, most of whom have never been in Ukraine before, on how to manage expected billions of dollars expected to flow to the country after the war. Endless talks about need for insurance, insurance and insurance, direct foreign investment and grants, grants and more grants. All these subjects and issues and information flows were part of our daily lives at the Rebuilding Ukraine Agency since the day of its official founding March 24th, 2022! Then, three days in Warsaw, being a key part of the REbuild Ukraine conference and exposition changed it all. Speaking and listening to hundreds of attendees (6,000 attended), tens of exhibitors (254 companies were present) and multiple representatives of the government agencies from at least dozen countries (there were over twenty in attendance) certain things became crystal clear.
Despite what the title of this article says, not all of the folks involved in the subject of Rebuilding Ukraine have it wrong, and many solutions, activities and plans offered are very good, needed and may one day have a shot at being implemented. The problem is not the plans and ideas and available insurance or financing programs. The problem is DISCORD of all the parties involved. There is a very famous 1814 fable by Krylov called Lebed’, Rak i Shuka (Swan, Crayfish and a Pike) (Yes, I know Krylov was russian and no, I will not accept criticism of activists for using this reference here, as it absolutely perfectly illustrates what is going on with respect to the subject of Rebuilding Ukraine). The gist of the fable is that when asked to pull a cart together, the swan, the crayfish and the pike would have easily succeeded had they worked together in unison, yet they failed miserably because the swan was pulling up wanting to fly, crayfish crawled backwards, and the pike was pulling the cart toward the river. With this type of effort, the cart of course remained in place.
The same situation is taking place now with respect to Ukraine. Multiple stakeholders, each with their own self-interest, are pulling the proverbial cart in different directions, while Ukraine remains in one place, all while being raped, tortured and pillaged by the aggressor. This is unacceptable and will not work effectively when the time comes to rebuild the country. Add to that graft and corruption, which exists both in Ukraine and in practically all Western countries, inexperience of many new entrants, protectionism and squatting within Ukraine and the recipe for a failure is almost complete. Below are but just a few factors, which have developed during the war, and which contribute to the discord. Rebuilding Ukraine’s process today is like a star-studded symphony orchestra without a conductor.
War effect – this terrible war has affected the lives of tens of millions of people, severely damaged Ukrainian economy and infrastructure, necessitated new skills and knowledge from multiple local participants, and completely upended the traditional means of municipal financing, affected urban development, reconfigured construction supply markets, impacted labor availability, economic development and this is just scratching the surface.
Federal vs municipal – Ukraine’s Federal Government has done a very credible job dealing with the war effort, repairing some infrastructure and planning for the post war recovery. The situation at the regional and local levels has not been quite as smooth and uniform. The fact that the local authorities were left largely to fend for themselves did not help. Most Regional and local entities do not have significant experience dealing with the western businesses and attracting international financing.
Famous vs forgotten – although there are over one thousand cities, towns, municipalities and villages, some like Bucha, Irpin, Bakhmut, Mariupol, Kharkiv, Zaporizh’e Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipro and Odesa became very well known as result of the devastating war and their suffering. This “fame” attracted disproportionate attention from the international community and a disproportionate desire to help rebuild these particular locales. Yet hundreds of other municipalities, some located practically next door to the aforementioned, have also suffered just as badly. What about them? How do they cope not only with the effects of war, but with being dealt a less fortunate hand in the rebuilding process?
PR effect – PR on all levels has been one of the most effective tools during this horrible war. From the national level PR of the President speaking to the parliaments, governments and international financial institutions, to more localized investment promotion agencies, municipalities, countless NGOs, YouTube bloggers and commercial entities constantly appearing in social media and at various international events, PR has made Ukraine the leading global brand and the most attractive destination for rebuilding. This phenomenon has attracted a great many players who have never before done business in Ukraine, or even visited the county.
Award of patronage – many countries, NGOS, individuals and businesses spent the last year helping Ukraine in its war efforts. Countless tons of military equipment, medical supplies, food, clothing and much more were delivered to Ukraine. As the result, the President of Ukraine awarded to some countries priority patronage over rebuilding certain cities. The basis for such awards were unclear, the countries selected were very few and this process did not appear to help the remaining municipalities in Ukraine.
Foreign entrants – It is estimated that businesses, NGOs and governments from about fifty countries are interested to participate in helping Ukraine win the war and to take place in the subsequent rebuilding process. Almost every country has one or more government agencies charged with supporting exports and investments for the businesses from that country. These agencies are very useful in helping their constituents enter multiple foreign markets but could become much more effective if they become a part of the Ukraine-focused international initiative, one that is capable of delivering to their clients the so called “last mile” connectivity with the Ukrainian federal, regional, local and commercial markets and can help them to better understand Ukrainian processes, needs and the local culture.
Foreign money and insurance – from the start of the war, many Ukrainian and international participants (including our own Agency) began to focus on bringing new investment projects and understanding the tools available for financing and insurance in Ukraine today and once the hot phase of the war ends. While FDI, debt financing and Political Risk Insurance (PRI), war insurance, export credit and breach of contract coverages, along with similar instruments are very important, it should be the proverbial number 175 on the list of priorities to rebuild Ukraine. The Rebuilding Ukraine Agency has an extremely deep and capable multi-country team to develop, finance and insure complex projects. We closely work with both government, private and capital market funding, and insurance sources in over 20 countries. Our members have successfully completed large and very complex financing in Ukraine over 27 years. What we see now is a very unorganized and poorly prepared market with a dearth of well-developed projects, deteriorating credit quality, unwillingness of many Western funders and local investors to participate and precious few selected projects ready for the financing/insurance applications submissions. The recipe for fixing this critically important issue will be a subject to a separate post.
Regional vs regional – Lviv region vs Zakorpatye vs Volyn, vs Chernihiv vs Odesa vs Kherson along with the other eighteen regions they all compete. They compete for economic development, for domestic and foreign investment, for more inhabitants, for more resources. During peaceful times, this type of competition is absolutely healthy and normal and should be left alone. Yet these are not peaceful times and the resources for which regions compete are foreign as well as domestic. The demographics are changing with manufacturing capacity and populations moving West or leaving the country completely. It is vital for the new market entrants to understand the effects of these changes in making their investment and financing decisions. It is also vital for the Regional and local authorities to understand the evolving situation and develop plans to make their regions more attractive for economic development, which are based on the new realities.
Local vs local – cities, towns, hromadas and villages – face much the same issues as the regions, but their woes are amplified. There are many of them, they greatly vary in size, economic advantages, location and population. Their credit quality is largely non-existent, or not sufficient to obtain any type of financing, other than from the Ukrainian Federal government, local taxes or utility fees. They education as to what is needed to attract Western counterparties is often below par and the local corruption is often high. All these sources are far from sufficient to help these cities and towns rebuild and jumpstart their economic activities post-war. For the last eleven months their issues have been largely ignored and this needs to change.
Shifting demographics, declining population, PTSD – by various estimates, about ten million people were displaced as the result of the war, about 4.7 million were forced to leave the country, and it is safe to predict that most of the 40 million Ukrainians will suffer the effects of PTSD. Thus, developing a coordinated plan to help welcome those refugees who will be coming back, replace those labor market participants who will not return and set up effective rehabilitation programs for those suffering from PTSD will be vital and will require strong coordination.
Reconciling Ukraine 5.0 with damaged pipes, schools and hospitals today – The mandate of the Ukraine’s government and its lawmakers, which is echoed by a number of private and NGO players, is to rebuild Ukraine better. Smart cities, energy efficient construction, new urban planning and other state-of-the-art features. But Ukraine is badly damaged, not destroyed. Thus, how to reconcile the planning of building an entirely new ultra-modern, energy efficient smart City, of which only maybe 20 percent has been damaged and for which the City administration desperately needs funds to repair broken pipes, streets, schools and kindergarten facilities today!!!! Do it piecemeal and you end up with a quilt patch of mediocre, and there is certainly no funding to do it all at once. Again, strong multiparty coordination is needed.
The Warsaw conference clearly showed the proper unique positioning and the leadership role of the Rebuilding Ukraine Agency. During the conference we have been approached by multiple European Governments and Government agencies, seeking to cooperate with the Agency and for us to assist their constituent businesses. The Agency has also conducted significant discussions with the private sector companies and with multiple Ukrainian municipalities. Current situation calls for completely different tactics. Investment projects and market entrance by the players new to Ukraine have to be curated and carefully developed. The Investment Promotion agencies, while useful, have no depth and expertise needed to see the projects through to their financing and completion. Over the next several months the Agency will significantly broaden its scope and membership roster. Stay tuned!
After two action-packed days, the basic thesis of the Rebuild Ukraine event may be summed up as follows: Private business looking to get into Ukraine and Ukrainian business looking for the western business expertise and financing, should be supported by their respective governments, IFIS and NGOs, but led into action by an international, experienced privately managed economic development organization, which has experience, cross-cultural awareness, stature and independence to act. This organization needs to be comfortable in talking to all Ukrainian and external stakeholders, as it will be a key interface between helping Ukraine get ready for Western investment, lending, insurance, supply and training. Support from international government investment promotion agencies is absolutely vital as is the support from the Ukrainian side on all levels. The analogy I often like to use is that of a major port where large passenger, cargo and at times military ships, come in and each one of them is big and mighty. Yet, in order for the port to operate successfully, small, agile tugboats are needed to coordinate all these large ships. Thus, either as the conductor of a large multinational Rebuilding symphony orchestra, or as the tugboat of the port of call named UKRAINE it is indisputable that Ukraine needs an experienced independent, multinational economic development organization to coordinate the massive rebuilding effort for the western players seeking to help the country. For the last eleven months, the members of the Rebuilding Ukraine Agency have been working on developing innovative training programs, financing solutions and economic development techniques applicable to the new realities of Ukraine. If your organization is interested in helping Ukraine rebuild efficiently and with the maximum benefit, please consider joining our Agency. Our team, and our esteemed members have the technical, legal, cross-cultural and financial tools required to deliver an orderly process where the resources are used strategically and the rebuilding process involving western companies, governments and financial institutions will have the maximum effect for every Hryvna, Dollar, Euro, Pound or Zloty spent.
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Alexander Gordin
Valerie Antoinette
Fluent In Foreign Business 