Political Forecasting with Common Sense

As part of our efforts to bring you more relevant and diverse content, I am pleased to announce the launch of Risk Management section on the Fluent In Foreign blog.  This section will deal with subjects of political risk, export credit risk, vicarious liability protection, corporate and personal security, travel and medical insurance and protection of cargo and investment.  The Risk Management section follows the Exporter’s Tax Corner as the second section into which outside experts, who are part of the Fluent In Foreign network, contribute valuable insights.  Additional sections on International Franchising, Compliance, Financing, International Accounting and Documentation Processing will be added over the next few weeks, so please stay tuned.

I am pleased to welcome Mr. Daniel Wagner as the first contributor to the Risk Management section.  Mr. Wagner is a highly regarded author and expert on political risk insurance.  Daniel has been a frequent speaker at the Fluent In Foreign and other international events and has always been very well received by the audiences for his ability to make difficult and often mundane subject matter of Political Risk Insurance  accessible and fun.  This week Daniel opines on the subject of political forecasting.  I hope you enjoy the article and as always welcome your comments.

Political Forecasting with Common Sense

By Daniel Wagner

As global politics continue to gyrate, the pace of change poses ever greater challenges to accurately predicting the future. Many forecasters have gotten into the habit of declaring – ex post facto – that they got “it” right, when in fact they failed to accurately predict the course of events. Given the multifaceted nature of the world today, predicting the future is quickly becoming a fool’s game, and calls for a new paradigm.

Today’s oracles confront a dizzying array of information in an attempt to make sense of the future. Looking for precedents in unprecedented times exposes the shortcomings of managing risk by looking in the rear view mirror. It has gotten to the point where there is so much information out there, it is impossible to consume it all. And yet, most of this information is little more than a regurgitation of news, and dated analysis – which is often passé as soon as it is produced. Yet, the average consumer of such information rarely recognizes the difference because they don’t have the luxury of spending enough time-consuming the information.   for more go to the Risk Management page – http://wp.me/P1iIhX-7j .


About Alexander Gordin
An international merchant banking professional with over twenty years of business operating and advisory experience in the areas of export finance, international project finance, risk mitigation and cross-border business development. Clients include foreign governments, municipalities and state enterprises as well as Fortune 500 and small/medium enterprises. Strong entrepreneurial instincts, combined with leadership and strategic skills. Transactional and negotiations experience in over thirty five countries. Author of the highly acclaimed "Fluent in Foreign Business" book and creator of the "Fluent in OPIC", "Fluent in EXIM","Fluent In Foreign Franchising", "Fluent in FCPA",and "Fluent in USTDA" seminar/webinar series. Currently developing "Fluent In ......" seminars and publications. Co-author of the Fi3 Country Business Appeal Indices. Extensive international business development and project finance transaction experience in healthcare, aerospace, ICT, conventional and alternative energy infrastructure, distribution and hospitality industries. Experience managing international public and private corporations. Co-Founded three companies abroad. Strong Emerging and Frontier Market expertise. Published and featured in numerous publications including: The Wall Street Journal, Knowledge@Wharton, NBC.com, The Chicago Tribune, Industry Week, Industry Today, Business Finance, Wharton Magazine Blog, NY Enterprise Report, Success magazine, Kyiv Post and on a number of radio and television programs including: Voice of America, CNBC, CNNfn, and Bloomberg. Frequent speaker on strategy, cross-border finance and international business development. Executive MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. B.S. in Management of Information Systems from the Polytechnic Institute of NYU. Specialties Strategic Management Advisory, Export Finance, International Project Finance & Risk Management, Cross-border Negotiations, Structured Finance transactions, Senior Government and Corporate officials liason

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